AO Itabaiana 3–4 Maranhão: Result & Stats

AO Itabaiana

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Maranhão

3/21/2024

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 6Estádio Paulo Barreto de Menezes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

AO Itabaiana42%

×Draw24%

Maranhão34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AO ItabaianaExpected goals in this matchMaranhão

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.39

AO Itabaiana

1.56

Maranhão

1.39

AO Itabaiana creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.11

creates per match

1.00

1.78

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

AO Itabaiana

1.11

Maranhão

1.00

allows per match

AO Itabaiana

1.78

Maranhão

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par

Maranhão+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AO Itabaiana ↓

Maranhão →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AO Itabaiana or draw

66%

AO Itabaiana or Maranhão

76%

Draw or Maranhão

58%

Winning margin

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+

21%

Maranhão wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals

79%

AO Itabaiana 2+ goals

46%

AO Itabaiana 3+ goals

21%

Maranhão 1+ goals

75%

Maranhão 2+ goals

40%

Maranhão 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)

55%

Maranhão (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AO Itabaiana at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Maranhão away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AO Itabaiana attack 1.11 + Maranhão defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Maranhão attack 1.00 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AO Itabaiana scores more

42%

level

24%

Maranhão scores more

34%

AO Itabaiana at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AO Itabaiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff