Maranguape 0–0 Pacatuba: Result & Stats

Maranguape

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pacatuba

2/24/2024

Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Raimundo de Oliveira Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Maranguape56%

×Draw28%

Pacatuba15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaranguapeExpected goals in this matchPacatuba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.56

Maranguape

1.35

Pacatuba

0.56

Maranguape creates 141% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 24 away

1.00

creates per match

0.42

0.71

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Maranguape

1.00

Pacatuba

0.42

allows per match

Maranguape

0.71

Pacatuba

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maranguape+0.00on par

Pacatuba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranguape ↓

Pacatuba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Maranguape or draw

85%

Maranguape or Pacatuba

72%

Draw or Pacatuba

44%

Winning margin

Maranguape wins by 2+

28%

Pacatuba wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Maranguape 1+ goals

74%

Maranguape 2+ goals

39%

Maranguape 3+ goals

15%

Pacatuba 1+ goals

43%

Pacatuba 2+ goals

11%

Pacatuba 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Maranguape (draw refunded)

78%

Pacatuba (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranguape at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 31 matches

Pacatuba away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranguape attack 1.00 + Pacatuba defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pacatuba attack 0.42 + Maranguape defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Maranguape scores more

56%

level

28%

Pacatuba scores more

15%

Maranguape at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Maranguape will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff