Maranguape 1–2 Itapipoca: Result & Stats

Maranguape

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Itapipoca

3/30/2025

Cearense - 2 · Semi-finalsEstádio Almir Dutra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Maranguape43%

×Draw29%

Itapipoca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaranguapeExpected goals in this matchItapipoca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.97

Maranguape

1.25

Itapipoca

0.97

Maranguape creates 29% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 37 away

1.00

creates per match

1.24

0.71

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Maranguape

1.00

Itapipoca

1.24

allows per match

Maranguape

0.71

Itapipoca

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maranguape+0.00on par

Itapipoca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranguape ↓

Itapipoca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Maranguape or draw

71%

Maranguape or Itapipoca

71%

Draw or Itapipoca

57%

Winning margin

Maranguape wins by 2+

19%

Itapipoca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Maranguape 1+ goals

71%

Maranguape 2+ goals

36%

Maranguape 3+ goals

13%

Itapipoca 1+ goals

62%

Itapipoca 2+ goals

25%

Itapipoca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Maranguape (draw refunded)

60%

Itapipoca (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranguape at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 31 matches

Itapipoca away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranguape attack 1.00 + Itapipoca defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Itapipoca attack 1.24 + Maranguape defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maranguape scores more

43%

level

29%

Itapipoca scores more

29%

Maranguape at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Maranguape will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff