Maracena 0–1 Torre del Mar: Result & Stats

Maracena

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Torre del Mar

10/22/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Ciudad Deportiva Maracena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Maracena36%

×Draw27%

Torre del Mar37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaracenaExpected goals in this matchTorre del Mar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.23

Maracena

1.22

Torre del Mar

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 83 away

1.28

creates per match

1.17

1.30

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Maracena

1.28

Torre del Mar

1.17

allows per match

Maracena

1.30

Torre del Mar

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maracena+0.00on par

Torre del Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maracena ↓

Torre del Mar →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Maracena or draw

63%

Maracena or Torre del Mar

73%

Draw or Torre del Mar

64%

Winning margin

Maracena wins by 2+

15%

Torre del Mar wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Maracena 1+ goals

70%

Maracena 2+ goals

34%

Maracena 3+ goals

12%

Torre del Mar 1+ goals

71%

Torre del Mar 2+ goals

35%

Torre del Mar 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Maracena (draw refunded)

50%

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Maracena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Torre del Mar away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Maracena attack 1.28 + Torre del Mar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.22

Torre del Mar attack 1.17 + Maracena defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Maracena scores more

36%

level

27%

Torre del Mar scores more

37%

Torre del Mar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff