Maracena 0–0 Mancha Real: Result & Stats

Maracena

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mancha Real

2/11/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 21Complejo Deportivo Las Américas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Maracena41%

×Draw29%

Mancha Real31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaracenaExpected goals in this matchMancha Real

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.02

Maracena

1.22

Mancha Real

1.02

Maracena creates 20% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 79 away

1.28

creates per match

0.73

1.30

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Maracena

1.28

Mancha Real

0.73

allows per match

Maracena

1.30

Mancha Real

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maracena+0.00on par

Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maracena ↓

Mancha Real →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Maracena or draw

69%

Maracena or Mancha Real

71%

Draw or Mancha Real

59%

Winning margin

Maracena wins by 2+

18%

Mancha Real wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Maracena 1+ goals

70%

Maracena 2+ goals

34%

Maracena 3+ goals

12%

Mancha Real 1+ goals

64%

Mancha Real 2+ goals

27%

Mancha Real 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Maracena (draw refunded)

57%

Mancha Real (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Maracena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Maracena attack 1.28 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Maracena defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maracena scores more

41%

level

29%

Mancha Real scores more

31%

Maracena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maracena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff