Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Maracena vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Maracena
Maracena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Malaga City
Malaga City
1/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 19Campo De Fútbol Pinos Puente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Maracena52%
×Draw25%
Malaga City23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maracena
1.62
Malaga City
0.99

Maracena creates 64% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 49 away

creates per match

Maracena
1.28
Malaga City
0.67

allows per match

Maracena
1.30
Malaga City
1.96

finishing

Maracena+0.00on par
Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maracena ↓

Malaga City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Maracena or draw
77%
Maracena or Malaga City
75%
Draw or Malaga City
48%

Winning margin

Maracena wins by 2+
28%
Malaga City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Maracena 1+ goals
80%
Maracena 2+ goals
48%
Maracena 3+ goals
22%
Malaga City 1+ goals
63%
Malaga City 2+ goals
26%
Malaga City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Maracena (draw refunded)
69%
Malaga City (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maracena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maracena attack 1.28 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.62

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Maracena defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Maracena scores more
52%
level
25%
Malaga City scores more
23%

Maracena at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Maracena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maracena vs Malaga City

Maracena and Malaga City drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Pinos Puente in Pinos Puente.