Maracena 4–0 Huracán Melilla: Result & Stats

Maracena

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Huracán Melilla

1/14/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 17Ciudad Deportiva Maracena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Maracena81%

×Draw12%

Huracán Melilla7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaracenaExpected goals in this matchHuracán Melilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

0.75

Maracena

2.98

Huracán Melilla

0.75

Maracena creates 297% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

1.28

creates per match

0.20

1.30

allows per match

4.67

creates per match

Maracena

1.28

Huracán Melilla

0.20

allows per match

Maracena

1.30

Huracán Melilla

4.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maracena+0.00on par

Huracán Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maracena ↓

Huracán Melilla →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Maracena or draw

93%

Maracena or Huracán Melilla

88%

Draw or Huracán Melilla

19%

Winning margin

Maracena wins by 2+

62%

Huracán Melilla wins by 2+

Team goals

Maracena 1+ goals

95%

Maracena 2+ goals

79%

Maracena 3+ goals

56%

Huracán Melilla 1+ goals

53%

Huracán Melilla 2+ goals

17%

Huracán Melilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Maracena (draw refunded)

92%

Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Maracena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Huracán Melilla away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Maracena attack 1.28 + Huracán Melilla defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 2.98

Huracán Melilla attack 0.20 + Maracena defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 81%?"

Maracena scores more

81%

level

12%

Huracán Melilla scores more

Maracena at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Maracena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff