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Maracena vs Huétor Tájar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Maracena
Maracena
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
12/6/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Ciudad Deportiva Maracena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Maracena40%
×Draw27%
Huétor Tájar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maracena
1.36
Huétor Tájar
1.21

Maracena creates 12% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 109 away

creates per match

Maracena
1.28
Huétor Tájar
1.11

allows per match

Maracena
1.30
Huétor Tájar
1.45

finishing

Maracena+0.00on par
Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maracena ↓

Huétor Tájar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Maracena or draw
67%
Maracena or Huétor Tájar
73%
Draw or Huétor Tájar
60%

Winning margin

Maracena wins by 2+
19%
Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Maracena 1+ goals
74%
Maracena 2+ goals
39%
Maracena 3+ goals
16%
Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
70%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
34%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Maracena (draw refunded)
55%
Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maracena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maracena attack 1.28 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Maracena defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Maracena scores more
40%
level
27%
Huétor Tájar scores more
33%

Maracena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maracena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maracena vs Huétor Tájar

Huétor Tájar beat Maracena 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Maracena in Maracena.