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Maracena vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Maracena
Maracena
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
3/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Campo de Futbol 2 Maracena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Maracena40%
×Draw26%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maracena
1.36
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.23

Maracena creates 11% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 110 away

creates per match

Maracena
1.28
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.16

allows per match

Maracena
1.30
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.45

finishing

Maracena+0.00on par
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maracena ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Maracena or draw
66%
Maracena or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
74%
Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
60%

Winning margin

Maracena wins by 2+
18%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Maracena 1+ goals
74%
Maracena 2+ goals
39%
Maracena 3+ goals
16%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
71%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
35%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Maracena (draw refunded)
54%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maracena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maracena attack 1.28 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Maracena defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Maracena scores more
40%
level
26%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
34%

Maracena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maracena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maracena vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Maracena and Ciudad de Torredonjimeno drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol 2 Maracena in Maracena.