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Maracena vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Maracena
Maracena
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
9/24/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 3Ciudad Deportiva Maracena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Maracena75%
×Draw15%
Atlético Melilla10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maracena
2.73
Atlético Melilla
0.89

Maracena creates 207% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 17 away

creates per match

Maracena
1.28
Atlético Melilla
0.47

allows per match

Maracena
1.30
Atlético Melilla
4.18

finishing

Maracena+0.00on par
Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maracena ↓

Atlético Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Maracena or draw
90%
Maracena or Atlético Melilla
85%
Draw or Atlético Melilla
25%

Winning margin

Maracena wins by 2+
54%
Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Maracena 1+ goals
93%
Maracena 2+ goals
75%
Maracena 3+ goals
50%
Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Maracena (draw refunded)
88%
Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maracena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maracena attack 1.28 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.73

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + Maracena defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Maracena scores more
75%
level
15%
Atlético Melilla scores more
10%

Maracena at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Maracena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maracena vs Atlético Melilla

Maracena beat Atlético Melilla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Maracena in Maracena.