Maracanã 1–0 Iguatu: Result & Stats | Serie D

Maracanã

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Iguatu

Bravo 39'

5/4/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Almir Dutra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Maracanã41%

×Draw29%

Iguatu29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaracanãExpected goals in this matchIguatu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.95

Maracanã

1.18

Iguatu

0.95

Maracanã creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 32 away

1.11

creates per match

0.84

1.05

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Maracanã

1.11

Iguatu

0.84

allows per match

Maracanã

1.05

Iguatu

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maracanã+0.00on par

Iguatu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maracanã ↓

Iguatu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Maracanã or draw

71%

Maracanã or Iguatu

71%

Draw or Iguatu

59%

Winning margin

Maracanã wins by 2+

18%

Iguatu wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Maracanã 1+ goals

69%

Maracanã 2+ goals

33%

Maracanã 3+ goals

12%

Iguatu 1+ goals

61%

Iguatu 2+ goals

25%

Iguatu 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Maracanã (draw refunded)

58%

Iguatu (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maracanã at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Iguatu away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maracanã attack 1.11 + Iguatu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Iguatu attack 0.84 + Maracanã defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maracanã scores more

41%

level

29%

Iguatu scores more

29%

Maracanã at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maracanã will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Bravo

90+6'

Maracanã

Iguatu

⚽

Manager: Júnior Cearense

Maracanã substitutes

RogérioCarlosSantosTaumaturgoRonaldoPiresLessimRianBarba

Manager: Washington Luiz

Iguatu substitutes

FerrugemUchoaBacabalJacozinhoJorgeDanielArthurGeovaneCarlosTafinhaSouza

Serie D: Maracanã 1–0 Iguatu

Maracanã beat Iguatu 1-0 in Serie D on May 4, 2025.

Goals: Bravo (39').

The match was played at Estádio Almir Dutra in Maracanaú, Ceará.

Maracanã vs Iguatu — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Maracanã 1–0 Iguatu