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Mara Sugar vs Zoo Kericho — Super League 2018

Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
FT
2 – 2
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
12/19/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mara Sugar50%
×Draw23%
Zoo Kericho27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mara Sugar
1.77
Zoo Kericho
1.23

Mara Sugar creates 44% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 14 away

creates per match

Mara Sugar
1.91
Zoo Kericho
1.64

allows per match

Mara Sugar
0.81
Zoo Kericho
1.64

finishing

Mara Sugar+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mara Sugar ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mara Sugar or draw
73%
Mara Sugar or Zoo Kericho
77%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
50%

Winning margin

Mara Sugar wins by 2+
27%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mara Sugar 1+ goals
83%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
53%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
26%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
71%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
35%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
65%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mara Sugar at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.81 · 54 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mara Sugar attack 1.91 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.77

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + Mara Sugar defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mara Sugar scores more
50%
level
23%
Zoo Kericho scores more
27%

Mara Sugar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mara Sugar 2–2 Zoo Kericho

Mara Sugar and Zoo Kericho drew 2-2 in Super League on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Awendo.