Marítimo 2–1 Bolívar: Result & Stats

Marítimo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bolívar

5/23/2026

Segunda División · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Marítimo59%

×Draw26%

Bolívar15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarítimoExpected goals in this matchBolívar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.64

Marítimo

1.54

Bolívar

0.64

Marítimo creates 141% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

1.71

creates per match

0.67

0.61

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Marítimo

1.71

Bolívar

0.67

allows per match

Marítimo

0.61

Bolívar

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marítimo+0.00on par

Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo ↓

Bolívar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Marítimo or draw

85%

Marítimo or Bolívar

74%

Draw or Bolívar

41%

Winning margin

Marítimo wins by 2+

32%

Bolívar wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Marítimo 1+ goals

79%

Marítimo 2+ goals

45%

Marítimo 3+ goals

20%

Bolívar 1+ goals

47%

Bolívar 2+ goals

14%

Bolívar 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Marítimo (draw refunded)

79%

Bolívar (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.61 · 56 matches

Bolívar away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo attack 1.71 + Bolívar defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bolívar attack 0.67 + Marítimo defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Marítimo scores more

59%

level

26%

Bolívar scores more

15%

Marítimo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff