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Mar Menor vs SFC Minerva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mar Menor
Mar Menor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 24Estadio El Pitín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mar Menor57%
×Draw24%
SFC Minerva19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mar Menor
1.69
SFC Minerva
0.87

Mar Menor creates 94% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 63 away

creates per match

Mar Menor
1.71
SFC Minerva
1.03

allows per match

Mar Menor
0.71
SFC Minerva
1.67

finishing

Mar Menor+0.00on par
SFC Minerva+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mar Menor ↓

SFC Minerva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mar Menor or draw
81%
Mar Menor or SFC Minerva
76%
Draw or SFC Minerva
43%

Winning margin

Mar Menor wins by 2+
31%
SFC Minerva wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals
82%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
50%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
24%
SFC Minerva 1+ goals
58%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
22%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mar Menor (draw refunded)
75%
SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mar Menor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

SFC Minerva away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mar Menor attack 1.71 + SFC Minerva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

SFC Minerva attack 1.03 + Mar Menor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mar Menor scores more
57%
level
24%
SFC Minerva scores more
19%

Mar Menor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mar Menor vs SFC Minerva

Mar Menor and SFC Minerva drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Pitín in San Javier.