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Mar Menor vs Racing Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mar Menor
Mar Menor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Murcia
Racing Murcia
12/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 3Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mar Menor48%
×Draw27%
Racing Murcia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mar Menor
1.39
Racing Murcia
0.92

Mar Menor creates 51% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 62 away

creates per match

Mar Menor
1.71
Racing Murcia
1.13

allows per match

Mar Menor
0.71
Racing Murcia
1.06

finishing

Mar Menor+0.00on par
Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mar Menor ↓

Racing Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mar Menor or draw
75%
Mar Menor or Racing Murcia
73%
Draw or Racing Murcia
52%

Winning margin

Mar Menor wins by 2+
23%
Racing Murcia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals
75%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
40%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
16%
Racing Murcia 1+ goals
60%
Racing Murcia 2+ goals
23%
Racing Murcia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mar Menor (draw refunded)
66%
Racing Murcia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mar Menor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Racing Murcia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mar Menor attack 1.71 + Racing Murcia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Racing Murcia attack 1.13 + Mar Menor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mar Menor scores more
48%
level
27%
Racing Murcia scores more
25%

Mar Menor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mar Menor 0 – 1 Racing Murcia

Racing Murcia beat Mar Menor 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Unión.