Mar Menor 0–3 Cartagena II: Result & Stats

Mar Menor

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cartagena II

12/13/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Estadio El Pitín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mar Menor45%

×Draw27%

Cartagena II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mar MenorExpected goals in this matchCartagena II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.02

Mar Menor

1.39

Cartagena II

1.02

Mar Menor creates 36% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

1.71

creates per match

1.33

0.71

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Mar Menor

1.71

Cartagena II

1.33

allows per match

Mar Menor

0.71

Cartagena II

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mar Menor+0.00on par

Cartagena II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mar Menor ↓

Cartagena II →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mar Menor or draw

72%

Mar Menor or Cartagena II

73%

Draw or Cartagena II

55%

Winning margin

Mar Menor wins by 2+

22%

Cartagena II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals

75%

Mar Menor 2+ goals

40%

Mar Menor 3+ goals

16%

Cartagena II 1+ goals

64%

Cartagena II 2+ goals

27%

Cartagena II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mar Menor (draw refunded)

62%

Cartagena II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mar Menor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Cartagena II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mar Menor attack 1.71 + Cartagena II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cartagena II attack 1.33 + Mar Menor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mar Menor scores more

45%

level

27%

Cartagena II scores more

28%

Mar Menor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff