Mar Menor 1–0 Águilas: Result & Stats

Mar Menor

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Águilas

4/18/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio El Pitín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mar Menor43%

×Draw29%

Águilas28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mar MenorExpected goals in this matchÁguilas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.91

Mar Menor

1.20

Águilas

0.91

Mar Menor creates 32% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 42 away

1.71

creates per match

1.10

0.71

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Mar Menor

1.71

Águilas

1.10

allows per match

Mar Menor

0.71

Águilas

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mar Menor+0.00on par

Águilas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mar Menor ↓

Águilas →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mar Menor or draw

72%

Mar Menor or Águilas

71%

Draw or Águilas

57%

Winning margin

Mar Menor wins by 2+

19%

Águilas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals

70%

Mar Menor 2+ goals

34%

Mar Menor 3+ goals

12%

Águilas 1+ goals

60%

Águilas 2+ goals

23%

Águilas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mar Menor (draw refunded)

60%

Águilas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mar Menor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Águilas away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mar Menor attack 1.71 + Águilas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.20

Águilas attack 1.10 + Mar Menor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mar Menor scores more

43%

level

29%

Águilas scores more

28%

Mar Menor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff