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Maqtaaral vs Okzhetpes — 1. Division 2019

Maqtaaral
Maqtaaral
FT
1 – 3
Okzhetpes
Okzhetpes
10/1/20211. Division1. Division · Round 19Stadion Alpamis Batyr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Maqtaaral33%
×Draw26%
Okzhetpes41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maqtaaral
1.26
Okzhetpes
1.42

Okzhetpes creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 39 away

creates per match

Maqtaaral
1.57
Okzhetpes
2.05

allows per match

Maqtaaral
0.80
Okzhetpes
0.95

finishing

Maqtaaral+0.00on par
Okzhetpes+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maqtaaral ↓

Okzhetpes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Maqtaaral or draw
59%
Maqtaaral or Okzhetpes
74%
Draw or Okzhetpes
67%

Winning margin

Maqtaaral wins by 2+
14%
Okzhetpes wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Maqtaaral 1+ goals
72%
Maqtaaral 2+ goals
36%
Maqtaaral 3+ goals
13%
Okzhetpes 1+ goals
76%
Okzhetpes 2+ goals
41%
Okzhetpes 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Maqtaaral (draw refunded)
45%
Okzhetpes (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maqtaaral at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Okzhetpes away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maqtaaral attack 1.57 + Okzhetpes defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.26

Okzhetpes attack 2.05 + Maqtaaral defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maqtaaral scores more
33%
level
26%
Okzhetpes scores more
41%

Okzhetpes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Okzhetpes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maqtaaral vs Okzhetpes

Okzhetpes beat Maqtaaral 3-1 in 1. Division on October 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Alpamis Batyr in Atakent.