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Maqtaaral vs Igilik — 1. Division 2019

Maqtaaral
Maqtaaral
FT
3 – 0
Igilik
Igilik
5/17/20211. Division1. Division · Round 6Stadion Alpamis Batyr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Maqtaaral74%
×Draw16%
Igilik10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maqtaaral
2.41
Igilik
0.76

Maqtaaral creates 217% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 24 away

creates per match

Maqtaaral
1.57
Igilik
0.71

allows per match

Maqtaaral
0.80
Igilik
3.25

finishing

Maqtaaral+0.00on par
Igilik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maqtaaral ↓

Igilik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Maqtaaral or draw
90%
Maqtaaral or Igilik
84%
Draw or Igilik
26%

Winning margin

Maqtaaral wins by 2+
51%
Igilik wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Maqtaaral 1+ goals
91%
Maqtaaral 2+ goals
69%
Maqtaaral 3+ goals
43%
Igilik 1+ goals
53%
Igilik 2+ goals
18%
Igilik 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Maqtaaral (draw refunded)
88%
Igilik (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maqtaaral at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Igilik away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maqtaaral attack 1.57 + Igilik defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.41

Igilik attack 0.71 + Maqtaaral defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Maqtaaral scores more
74%
level
16%
Igilik scores more
10%

Maqtaaral at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Maqtaaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Maqtaaral 3–0 Igilik

Maqtaaral beat Igilik 3-0 in 1. Division on May 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Alpamis Batyr in Atakent.