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Maqtaaral vs Aktobe — Cup 2019

Maqtaaral
Maqtaaral
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Aktobe
Aktobe
7/9/2022CupCup · Group Stage - 1Turkistan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Maqtaaral42%
×Draw25%
Aktobe33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maqtaaral
1.50
Aktobe
1.30

Maqtaaral creates 15% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Maqtaaral
1.50
Aktobe
1.30

allows per match

Maqtaaral
1.30
Aktobe
1.50

finishing

Maqtaaral+0.00on par
Aktobe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maqtaaral ↓

Aktobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Maqtaaral or draw
67%
Maqtaaral or Aktobe
75%
Draw or Aktobe
58%

Winning margin

Maqtaaral wins by 2+
20%
Aktobe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Maqtaaral 1+ goals
78%
Maqtaaral 2+ goals
44%
Maqtaaral 3+ goals
19%
Aktobe 1+ goals
73%
Aktobe 2+ goals
37%
Aktobe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Maqtaaral (draw refunded)
56%
Aktobe (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maqtaaral at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Aktobe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maqtaaral attack 1.50 + Aktobe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Aktobe attack 1.30 + Maqtaaral defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maqtaaral scores more
42%
level
25%
Aktobe scores more
33%

Maqtaaral at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maqtaaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Maqtaaral 3–2 Aktobe

Maqtaaral beat Aktobe 3-2 in Cup on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Turkistan Arena in Turkistan.