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MaPS vs PIF — Suomen Cup 2018

MaPS
MaPS
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PIF
PIF
3/29/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundMasku Taponketo KHT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

MaPS7%
×Draw15%
PIF78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MaPS
0.54
PIF
2.38

PIF creates 341% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

MaPS
0.25
PIF
3.50

allows per match

MaPS
1.25
PIF
0.83

finishing

MaPS+0.00on par
PIF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MaPS ↓

PIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–113%
0–215%
0–312%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

MaPS or draw
22%
MaPS or PIF
85%
Draw or PIF
93%

Winning margin

MaPS wins by 2+
1%
PIF wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

MaPS 1+ goals
42%
MaPS 2+ goals
10%
MaPS 3+ goals
2%
PIF 1+ goals
91%
PIF 2+ goals
68%
PIF 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

MaPS (draw refunded)
8%
PIF (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MaPS at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

PIF away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MaPS attack 0.25 + PIF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.54

PIF attack 3.50 + MaPS defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

MaPS scores more
7%
level
15%
PIF scores more
78%

PIF at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "PIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MaPS vs PIF

MaPS and PIF drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Masku Taponketo KHT in Masku.