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MaPS vs ÅIFK — Suomen Cup 2018

MaPS
MaPS
FT
0 – 1
ÅIFK
ÅIFK
3/6/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundNaantali KHT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

MaPS7%
×Draw14%
ÅIFK80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MaPS
0.63
ÅIFK
2.63

ÅIFK creates 317% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

MaPS
0.25
ÅIFK
4.00

allows per match

MaPS
1.25
ÅIFK
1.00

finishing

MaPS+0.00on par
ÅIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MaPS ↓

ÅIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–214%
0–312%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

MaPS or draw
20%
MaPS or ÅIFK
86%
Draw or ÅIFK
93%

Winning margin

MaPS wins by 2+
2%
ÅIFK wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

MaPS 1+ goals
47%
MaPS 2+ goals
13%
MaPS 3+ goals
3%
ÅIFK 1+ goals
93%
ÅIFK 2+ goals
73%
ÅIFK 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

MaPS (draw refunded)
8%
ÅIFK (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MaPS at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

ÅIFK away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MaPS attack 0.25 + ÅIFK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

ÅIFK attack 4.00 + MaPS defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

MaPS scores more
7%
level
14%
ÅIFK scores more
80%

ÅIFK at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "ÅIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MaPS 0 – 1 ÅIFK

ÅIFK beat MaPS 1-0 in Suomen Cup on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Naantali KHT in Naantali.