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Manzini Wanderers vs Young Buffaloes — Premier League 2020

Manzini Wanderers
Manzini Wanderers
FT
1 – 3
Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
4/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Manzini Wanderers19%
×Draw23%
Young Buffaloes58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzini Wanderers
0.90
Young Buffaloes
1.79

Young Buffaloes creates 99% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 86 away

creates per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.01
Young Buffaloes
1.86

allows per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.71
Young Buffaloes
0.78

finishing

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par
Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzini Wanderers ↓

Young Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Manzini Wanderers or draw
42%
Manzini Wanderers or Young Buffaloes
77%
Draw or Young Buffaloes
81%

Winning margin

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+
6%
Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals
59%
Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals
23%
Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals
6%
Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
83%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
53%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)
24%
Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzini Wanderers at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

Young Buffaloes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzini Wanderers attack 1.01 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.90

Young Buffaloes attack 1.86 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Manzini Wanderers scores more
19%
level
23%
Young Buffaloes scores more
58%

Young Buffaloes at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Manzini Wanderers 1–3 Young Buffaloes

Young Buffaloes beat Manzini Wanderers 3-1 in Premier League on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.