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Manzini Wanderers vs Mbabane Swallows — Premier League 2020

Manzini Wanderers
Manzini Wanderers
FT
0 – 4
Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
3/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Manzini Wanderers22%
×Draw26%
Mbabane Swallows52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzini Wanderers
0.91
Mbabane Swallows
1.54

Mbabane Swallows creates 69% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 83 away

creates per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.01
Mbabane Swallows
1.37

allows per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.71
Mbabane Swallows
0.81

finishing

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par
Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzini Wanderers ↓

Mbabane Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Manzini Wanderers or draw
48%
Manzini Wanderers or Mbabane Swallows
74%
Draw or Mbabane Swallows
78%

Winning margin

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+
7%
Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals
60%
Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals
23%
Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals
6%
Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
79%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
45%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)
30%
Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzini Wanderers at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzini Wanderers attack 1.01 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Manzini Wanderers scores more
22%
level
26%
Mbabane Swallows scores more
52%

Mbabane Swallows at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Manzini Wanderers 0–4 Mbabane Swallows

Mbabane Swallows beat Manzini Wanderers 4-0 in Premier League on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.