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Manzini Wanderers vs Malanti Chiefs — Premier League 2020

Manzini Wanderers
Manzini Wanderers
FT
1 – 0
Malanti Chiefs
Malanti Chiefs
11/27/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Manzini Wanderers40%
×Draw26%
Malanti Chiefs34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzini Wanderers
1.40
Malanti Chiefs
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 46 away

creates per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.01
Malanti Chiefs
0.85

allows per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.71
Malanti Chiefs
1.78

finishing

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par
Malanti Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzini Wanderers ↓

Malanti Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Manzini Wanderers or draw
66%
Manzini Wanderers or Malanti Chiefs
74%
Draw or Malanti Chiefs
60%

Winning margin

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+
19%
Malanti Chiefs wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals
75%
Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals
41%
Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals
17%
Malanti Chiefs 1+ goals
72%
Malanti Chiefs 2+ goals
37%
Malanti Chiefs 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)
54%
Malanti Chiefs (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzini Wanderers at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

Malanti Chiefs away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzini Wanderers attack 1.01 + Malanti Chiefs defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.40

Malanti Chiefs attack 0.85 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manzini Wanderers scores more
40%
level
26%
Malanti Chiefs scores more
34%

Manzini Wanderers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manzini Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Manzini Wanderers 1–0 Malanti Chiefs

Manzini Wanderers beat Malanti Chiefs 1-0 in Premier League on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.