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Manzini Wanderers vs Illovo — Premier League 2020

Manzini Wanderers
Manzini Wanderers
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
Illovo
Illovo
12/9/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Manzini Wanderers34%
×Draw26%
Illovo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzini Wanderers
1.27
Illovo
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 26 away

creates per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.01
Illovo
1.04

allows per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.71
Illovo
1.54

finishing

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par
Illovo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzini Wanderers ↓

Illovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Manzini Wanderers or draw
60%
Manzini Wanderers or Illovo
74%
Draw or Illovo
66%

Winning margin

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+
15%
Illovo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals
72%
Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals
36%
Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals
14%
Illovo 1+ goals
75%
Illovo 2+ goals
40%
Illovo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)
47%
Illovo (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzini Wanderers at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

Illovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzini Wanderers attack 1.01 + Illovo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Illovo attack 1.04 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manzini Wanderers scores more
34%
level
26%
Illovo scores more
40%

Illovo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Illovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manzini Wanderers vs Illovo

Illovo beat Manzini Wanderers 4-3 in Premier League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.