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Manzini Sea Birds vs Mbabane Swallows — Premier League 2020

Manzini Sea Birds
Manzini Sea Birds
FT
0 – 2
Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
5/14/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Manzini Sea Birds32%
×Draw28%
Mbabane Swallows40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzini Sea Birds
1.10
Mbabane Swallows
1.25

Mbabane Swallows creates 14% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

creates per match

Manzini Sea Birds
1.39
Mbabane Swallows
1.37

allows per match

Manzini Sea Birds
1.13
Mbabane Swallows
0.81

finishing

Manzini Sea Birds+0.00on par
Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzini Sea Birds ↓

Mbabane Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Manzini Sea Birds or draw
60%
Manzini Sea Birds or Mbabane Swallows
72%
Draw or Mbabane Swallows
68%

Winning margin

Manzini Sea Birds wins by 2+
13%
Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Manzini Sea Birds 1+ goals
67%
Manzini Sea Birds 2+ goals
30%
Manzini Sea Birds 3+ goals
10%
Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
71%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
36%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Manzini Sea Birds (draw refunded)
45%
Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzini Sea Birds at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzini Sea Birds attack 1.39 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.10

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Manzini Sea Birds defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manzini Sea Birds scores more
32%
level
28%
Mbabane Swallows scores more
40%

Mbabane Swallows at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manzini Sea Birds vs Mbabane Swallows

Mbabane Swallows beat Manzini Sea Birds 2-0 in Premier League on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.