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Manzini Sea Birds vs Denver — Premier League 2020

Manzini Sea Birds
Manzini Sea Birds
FT
1 – 0
Denver
Denver
5/19/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Manzini Sea Birds43%
×Draw28%
Denver29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzini Sea Birds
1.27
Denver
0.99

Manzini Sea Birds creates 28% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 41 away

creates per match

Manzini Sea Birds
1.39
Denver
0.85

allows per match

Manzini Sea Birds
1.13
Denver
1.15

finishing

Manzini Sea Birds+0.00on par
Denver+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzini Sea Birds ↓

Denver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Manzini Sea Birds or draw
71%
Manzini Sea Birds or Denver
72%
Draw or Denver
57%

Winning margin

Manzini Sea Birds wins by 2+
19%
Denver wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Manzini Sea Birds 1+ goals
72%
Manzini Sea Birds 2+ goals
36%
Manzini Sea Birds 3+ goals
14%
Denver 1+ goals
63%
Denver 2+ goals
26%
Denver 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Manzini Sea Birds (draw refunded)
60%
Denver (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzini Sea Birds at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

Denver away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzini Sea Birds attack 1.39 + Denver defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Denver attack 0.85 + Manzini Sea Birds defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Manzini Sea Birds scores more
43%
level
28%
Denver scores more
29%

Manzini Sea Birds at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manzini Sea Birds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Manzini Sea Birds 1–0 Denver

Manzini Sea Birds beat Denver 1-0 in Premier League on May 19, 2022.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.