Manzanares 0–5 Marchamalo: Result & Stats

Manzanares

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Marchamalo

4/13/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 30Estadio José Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Manzanares31%

×Draw28%

Marchamalo41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManzanaresExpected goals in this matchMarchamalo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.27

Manzanares

1.06

Marchamalo

1.27

Marchamalo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 79 away

0.84

creates per match

1.03

1.50

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Manzanares

0.84

Marchamalo

1.03

allows per match

Manzanares

1.50

Marchamalo

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manzanares+0.00on par

Marchamalo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzanares ↓

Marchamalo →

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Manzanares or draw

59%

Manzanares or Marchamalo

72%

Draw or Marchamalo

69%

Winning margin

Manzanares wins by 2+

12%

Marchamalo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Manzanares 1+ goals

65%

Manzanares 2+ goals

29%

Manzanares 3+ goals

Marchamalo 1+ goals

72%

Marchamalo 2+ goals

36%

Marchamalo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Manzanares (draw refunded)

43%

Marchamalo (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Manzanares at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Marchamalo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Manzanares attack 0.84 + Marchamalo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Marchamalo attack 1.03 + Manzanares defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Manzanares scores more

31%

level

28%

Marchamalo scores more

41%

Marchamalo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Marchamalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff