Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Manzanares vs La Solana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Manzanares
Manzanares
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Solana
La Solana
1/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 12Estadio José Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Manzanares35%
×Draw28%
La Solana36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzanares
1.16
La Solana
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 80 away

creates per match

Manzanares
0.84
La Solana
0.85

allows per match

Manzanares
1.50
La Solana
1.48

finishing

Manzanares+0.00on par
La Solana+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzanares ↓

La Solana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Manzanares or draw
64%
Manzanares or La Solana
72%
Draw or La Solana
65%

Winning margin

Manzanares wins by 2+
15%
La Solana wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Manzanares 1+ goals
69%
Manzanares 2+ goals
32%
Manzanares 3+ goals
11%
La Solana 1+ goals
69%
La Solana 2+ goals
33%
La Solana 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Manzanares (draw refunded)
49%
La Solana (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzanares at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

La Solana away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.48 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzanares attack 0.84 + La Solana defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.16

La Solana attack 0.85 + Manzanares defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Manzanares scores more
35%
level
28%
La Solana scores more
36%

La Solana at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "La Solana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manzanares vs La Solana

Manzanares and La Solana drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio José Camacho in Manzanares.