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Manzanares vs Huracán Balazote — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Manzanares
Manzanares
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Huracán Balazote
Huracán Balazote
1/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 11Estadio José Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Manzanares34%
×Draw28%
Huracán Balazote38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzanares
1.14
Huracán Balazote
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 81 away

creates per match

Manzanares
0.84
Huracán Balazote
0.95

allows per match

Manzanares
1.50
Huracán Balazote
1.44

finishing

Manzanares+0.00on par
Huracán Balazote+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzanares ↓

Huracán Balazote →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Manzanares or draw
62%
Manzanares or Huracán Balazote
72%
Draw or Huracán Balazote
66%

Winning margin

Manzanares wins by 2+
14%
Huracán Balazote wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Manzanares 1+ goals
68%
Manzanares 2+ goals
32%
Manzanares 3+ goals
11%
Huracán Balazote 1+ goals
71%
Huracán Balazote 2+ goals
35%
Huracán Balazote 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Manzanares (draw refunded)
47%
Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzanares at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Huracán Balazote away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzanares attack 0.84 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.14

Huracán Balazote attack 0.95 + Manzanares defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Manzanares scores more
34%
level
28%
Huracán Balazote scores more
38%

Huracán Balazote at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Huracán Balazote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Manzanares 1–1 Huracán Balazote

Manzanares and Huracán Balazote drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio José Camacho in Manzanares.