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Manzanares vs Conquense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Manzanares
Manzanares
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Conquense
Conquense
4/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio José Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Manzanares23%
×Draw28%
Conquense49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzanares
0.85
Conquense
1.36

Conquense creates 60% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 76 away

creates per match

Manzanares
0.84
Conquense
1.22

allows per match

Manzanares
1.50
Conquense
0.87

finishing

Manzanares+0.00on par
Conquense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzanares ↓

Conquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Manzanares or draw
51%
Manzanares or Conquense
72%
Draw or Conquense
77%

Winning margin

Manzanares wins by 2+
8%
Conquense wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Manzanares 1+ goals
57%
Manzanares 2+ goals
21%
Manzanares 3+ goals
5%
Conquense 1+ goals
74%
Conquense 2+ goals
39%
Conquense 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Manzanares (draw refunded)
32%
Conquense (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzanares at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Conquense away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzanares attack 0.84 + Conquense defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.85

Conquense attack 1.22 + Manzanares defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Manzanares scores more
23%
level
28%
Conquense scores more
49%

Conquense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Conquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manzanares vs Conquense

Conquense beat Manzanares 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio José Camacho in Manzanares.