Manzanares 1–0 Almagro: Result & Stats

Manzanares

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Almagro

2/7/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 16Estadio José Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Manzanares45%

×Draw27%

Almagro29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManzanaresExpected goals in this matchAlmagro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.08

Manzanares

1.42

Almagro

1.08

Manzanares creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 29 away

0.84

creates per match

0.66

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Manzanares

0.84

Almagro

0.66

allows per match

Manzanares

1.50

Almagro

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manzanares+0.00on par

Almagro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzanares ↓

Almagro →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Manzanares or draw

71%

Manzanares or Almagro

73%

Draw or Almagro

55%

Winning margin

Manzanares wins by 2+

22%

Almagro wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Manzanares 1+ goals

76%

Manzanares 2+ goals

41%

Manzanares 3+ goals

17%

Almagro 1+ goals

66%

Almagro 2+ goals

29%

Almagro 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Manzanares (draw refunded)

61%

Almagro (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Manzanares at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Almagro away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Manzanares attack 0.84 + Almagro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Almagro attack 0.66 + Manzanares defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Manzanares scores more

45%

level

27%

Almagro scores more

29%

Manzanares at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Manzanares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff