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Mantova vs Venezia — Serie B 2018

Mantova
Mantova
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Venezia
Venezia
D. Mensah 81'
T. Marras 40'
K. Chrysopoulos 90' (OG)
A. Adorante 74', 25'
I. Doumbia 59'
J. Yeboah 33'
1/24/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 21Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Mantova31%
×Draw27%
Venezia42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mantova
1.12
Venezia
1.36

Venezia creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Mantova
1.23
Venezia
1.69

allows per match

Mantova
1.04
Venezia
1.01

finishing

Mantova+0.15scores more
Venezia+0.19scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Venezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mantova or draw
58%
Mantova or Venezia
73%
Draw or Venezia
69%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+
12%
Venezia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals
67%
Mantova 2+ goals
31%
Mantova 3+ goals
10%
Venezia 1+ goals
74%
Venezia 2+ goals
39%
Venezia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)
42%
Venezia (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.04 · 8 matches

Venezia away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.01 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.23 + Venezia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.12

Venezia attack 1.69 + Mantova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mantova scores more
31%
level
27%
Venezia scores more
42%

Venezia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
A. AdoranteVeneziaVenezia · F
9.2

Match Events

25'
A. Adorante↳ B. Franjic
33'
J. Yeboah↳ R. Sagrado
40'
T. Marras↳ F. Ruocco
45+1'
Simone Trimboli
46'
C. Bianay Balcot← N. Radaelli
52'
K. Chrysopoulos←
53'
Michael Venturi
55'
David Wieser
59'
I. Doumbia↳ J. Yeboah
64'
Antoine Hainaut
65'
S. Korac← M. Venturi
70'
F. Zuccon← D. Wieser
70'
L. Mancuso← F. Ruocco
74'
A. Adorante↳ S. Korac
77'
M. Compagnon← R. Sagrado
77'
A. Casas← A. Adorante
78'
A. Pietrelli← J. Yeboah
81'
D. Mensah
84'
C. Falletti← T. Goncalves
90+1'
A. Duncan← K. Perez
90'
K. ChrysopoulosOwn goal

Possession

42%Mantova

Shots

8Mantova

Pass accuracy

46%Mantova

Statistics

MantovaVenezia
Overview
42%Possession58%
8Total Shots21
0.36Expected Goals (xG)2.66
3Corners9
13Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots21
4On Target11
3Off Target4
1Blocked6
3Inside Box16
5Outside Box5
Passing
42%Possession58%
290Total Passes419
209Accurate Passes347
72%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Mantova vs Venezia

Venezia beat Mantova 5-2 in Serie B on January 24, 2026.

Goals: A. Adorante (25', 74'), J. Yeboah (33'), T. Marras (40'), I. Doumbia (59'), D. Mensah (81'), K. Chrysopoulos (90' o.g.).

Venezia controlled possession (58%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.