Mantova 0–3 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sassuolo

2/8/2025

Serie B · Round 25Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mantova31%

×Draw25%

Sassuolo44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.55

Mantova

1.24

Sassuolo

1.55

Sassuolo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

1.84

1.26

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Mantova

1.37

Sassuolo

1.84

allows per match

Mantova

1.26

Sassuolo

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mantova+0.00on par

Sassuolo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

56%

Mantova or Sassuolo

75%

Draw or Sassuolo

69%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

13%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

71%

Mantova 2+ goals

35%

Mantova 3+ goals

13%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

79%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

46%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

41%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.37 + Sassuolo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sassuolo attack 1.84 + Mantova defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mantova scores more

31%

level

25%

Sassuolo scores more

44%

Sassuolo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff