Mantova 1–0 Salernitana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Salernitana

F. Galuppini 46'

9/1/2024

Serie B · Round 4Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mantova45%

×Draw27%

Salernitana28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchSalernitana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

Mantova

1.40

Salernitana

1.04

Mantova creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 75 away

1.37

creates per match

0.83

1.26

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Mantova

1.37

Salernitana

0.83

allows per match

Mantova

1.26

Salernitana

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mantova+0.00on par

Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Salernitana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

72%

Mantova or Salernitana

73%

Draw or Salernitana

55%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

22%

Salernitana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

75%

Mantova 2+ goals

41%

Mantova 3+ goals

17%

Salernitana 1+ goals

65%

Salernitana 2+ goals

28%

Salernitana 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

62%

Salernitana (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.37 + Salernitana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Salernitana attack 0.83 + Mantova defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mantova scores more

45%

level

27%

Salernitana scores more

28%

Mantova at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

F. Ruocco

Mantova · M

7.5

Match Events

46'

M. Solini← A. Redolfi

46'

F. Galuppini↳ F. Ruocco

57'

J. Braaf← A. Tello

57'

P. Stojanović← D. Gentile

57'

E. Torregrossa← D. Valencia

66'

D. Wieser← M. Aramu

66'

D. Bragantini← F. Galuppini

66'

A. Hrustić← S. Nwankwo

78'

T. Maggioni← N. Radaelli

79'

Tijs Velthuis

79'

L. Mancuso← D. Mensah

86'

S. Włodarczyk← F. Tongya

87'

Ernesto Torregrossa

87'

Ajdin Hrustić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaSalernitana

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots5

0Corners1

17Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots5

2On Target2

2Off Target3

3Blocked0

3Inside Box3

4Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

517Total Passes418

450Accurate Passes362

87%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls16

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1