Mantova 1–0 Cremonese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cremonese

S. Burrai 59'

11/9/2024

Serie B · Round 13Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mantova38%

×Draw27%

Cremonese36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchCremonese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.25

Mantova

1.29

Cremonese

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 115 away

1.37

creates per match

1.23

1.26

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Mantova

1.37

Cremonese

1.23

allows per match

Mantova

1.26

Cremonese

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mantova+0.00on par

Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Cremonese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

64%

Mantova or Cremonese

73%

Draw or Cremonese

62%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

17%

Cremonese wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

72%

Mantova 2+ goals

37%

Mantova 3+ goals

14%

Cremonese 1+ goals

71%

Cremonese 2+ goals

36%

Cremonese 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

51%

Cremonese (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.37 + Cremonese defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cremonese attack 1.23 + Mantova defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mantova scores more

38%

level

27%

Cremonese scores more

36%

Mantova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

F. Brignani

Mantova · D

7.7

Match Events

5'

21'

26'

28'

35'

46'

C. Buonaiuto← J. Vandeputte

47'

55'

59'

64'

68'

L. Mancuso← D. Mensah

69'

F. Galuppini← D. Bragantini

69'

C. Pickel← M. Castagnetti

69'

G. Quagliata← L. Ravanelli

76'

M. De Luca← F. Vázquez

81'

81'

90+3'

90'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaCremonese

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots17

5Corners5

11Fouls24

Shots

15Total Shots17

3On Target4

8Off Target9

4Blocked4

6Inside Box12

9Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

370Total Passes278

322Accurate Passes212

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls24

2Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Serie B: Mantova 1–0 Cremonese

Mantova beat Cremonese 1-0 in Serie B on November 9, 2024.

Goals: S. Burrai (59').

Mantova controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.

Mantova vs Cremonese — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Mantova 1–0 Cremonese