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Mantova vs Cosenza — Serie B 2018

Mantova
Mantova
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Cosenza
Cosenza
8/25/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 2Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mantova46%
×Draw26%
Cosenza28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mantova
1.46
Cosenza
1.08

Mantova creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 134 away

creates per match

Mantova
1.37
Cosenza
0.90

allows per match

Mantova
1.26
Cosenza
1.54

finishing

Mantova+0.00on par
Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Cosenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mantova or draw
72%
Mantova or Cosenza
74%
Draw or Cosenza
54%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+
22%
Cosenza wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals
77%
Mantova 2+ goals
43%
Mantova 3+ goals
18%
Cosenza 1+ goals
66%
Cosenza 2+ goals
29%
Cosenza 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)
62%
Cosenza (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.37 + Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cosenza attack 0.90 + Mantova defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mantova scores more
46%
level
26%
Cosenza scores more
28%

Mantova at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Mantova 3–2 Cosenza

Mantova beat Cosenza 3-2 in Serie B on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.