Mantova 1–3 Catanzaro: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Catanzaro

L. Mancuso 7'

C. Favasuli 80'

A. Cisse 75'

Z. Majer 68' (OG)

10/29/2025

Serie B · Round 10Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Mantova40%

×Draw27%

Catanzaro34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchCatanzaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.20

Mantova

1.33

Catanzaro

1.20

Mantova creates 11% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.23

creates per match

1.35

1.04

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Mantova

1.23

Catanzaro

1.35

allows per match

Mantova

1.04

Catanzaro

1.43

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Mantova+0.15scores more

Catanzaro+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Catanzaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

66%

Mantova or Catanzaro

73%

Draw or Catanzaro

60%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

18%

Catanzaro wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

74%

Mantova 2+ goals

38%

Mantova 3+ goals

15%

Catanzaro 1+ goals

70%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

34%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

54%

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.04 · 8 matches

Catanzaro away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.43 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.23 + Catanzaro defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Catanzaro attack 1.35 + Mantova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mantova scores more

40%

level

27%

Catanzaro scores more

34%

Mantova at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80

A. Cisse

Catanzaro · F

8.3

Match Events

7'

L. Mancuso

58'

P. Iemmello← F. Rispoli

58'

P. Nuamah← M. D'Alessandro

58'

S. Pontisso← D. Buglio

60'

Simone Trimboli

62'

Z. Majer← F. Paoletti

63'

T. Pittino← S. Mullen

68'

Z. MajerOwn goal

70'

Nicolò Brighenti

72'

D. Mensah← L. Mancuso

72'

D. Wieser← F. Artioli

75'

A. Cisse↳ P. Nuamah

78'

G. Alesi← J. Petriccione

80'

C. Favasuli

84'

N. Bonfanti← M. Caprini

87'

G. Di Chiara← L. Pandolfi

89'

Matias Antonini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaCatanzaro

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots19

9Corners5

14Fouls18

Shots

16Total Shots19

5On Target7

6Off Target8

5Blocked4

8Inside Box13

8Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

447Total Passes323

397Accurate Passes274

89%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Serie B: Mantova 1–3 Catanzaro

Catanzaro beat Mantova 3-1 in Serie B on October 29, 2025.

Goals: L. Mancuso (7'), Z. Majer (68' o.g.), A. Cisse (75'), C. Favasuli (80').

Mantova controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.

Mantova vs Catanzaro — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Mantova 1–3 Catanzaro