Mantova 1–1 Brescia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brescia

10/6/2024

Serie B · Round 8Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mantova39%

×Draw27%

Brescia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchBrescia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.22

Mantova

1.33

Brescia

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 116 away

1.37

creates per match

1.18

1.26

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Mantova

1.37

Brescia

1.18

allows per match

Mantova

1.26

Brescia

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mantova+0.00on par

Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Brescia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

66%

Mantova or Brescia

73%

Draw or Brescia

61%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

18%

Brescia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

74%

Mantova 2+ goals

38%

Mantova 3+ goals

15%

Brescia 1+ goals

70%

Brescia 2+ goals

34%

Brescia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

54%

Brescia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.28 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.37 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Brescia attack 1.18 + Mantova defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mantova scores more

39%

level

27%

Brescia scores more

34%

Mantova at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff