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Manthiqueira vs ECUS — Paulista Série B 2026

Manthiqueira
Manthiqueira
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ECUS
ECUS
M. Pessoa 75'
5/17/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Manthiqueira30%
×Draw29%
ECUS40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manthiqueira
0.99
ECUS
1.19

ECUS creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Manthiqueira
1.28
ECUS
0.82

allows per match

Manthiqueira
1.56
ECUS
0.71

finishing

Manthiqueira+0.00on par
ECUS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manthiqueira ↓

ECUS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Manthiqueira or draw
60%
Manthiqueira or ECUS
71%
Draw or ECUS
70%

Winning margin

Manthiqueira wins by 2+
11%
ECUS wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Manthiqueira 1+ goals
63%
Manthiqueira 2+ goals
26%
Manthiqueira 3+ goals
8%
ECUS 1+ goals
70%
ECUS 2+ goals
33%
ECUS 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Manthiqueira (draw refunded)
43%
ECUS (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manthiqueira at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

ECUS away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manthiqueira attack 1.28 + ECUS defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.99

ECUS attack 0.82 + Manthiqueira defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manthiqueira scores more
30%
level
29%
ECUS scores more
40%

ECUS at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ECUS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
M. Pessoa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manthiqueira vs ECUS

ECUS beat Manthiqueira 1-0 in Paulista Série B on May 17, 2025.

Goals: M. Pessoa (75').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite in Guaratinguetá, São Paulo.