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Manta FC vs Santa Rita — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Manta FC
Manta FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
L. Pantoja 84'
J. Palacios Ávila 63', 28'
L. Espínola 61'
6/30/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 20Estadio Jocay (Manta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Manta FC50%
×Draw28%
Santa Rita22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manta FC
1.33
Santa Rita
0.77

Manta FC creates 73% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 49 away

creates per match

Manta FC
1.43
Santa Rita
0.69

allows per match

Manta FC
0.86
Santa Rita
1.24

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw
78%
Manta FC or Santa Rita
72%
Draw or Santa Rita
50%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+
24%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals
74%
Manta FC 2+ goals
38%
Manta FC 3+ goals
15%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
54%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
18%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)
70%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 104 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.43 + Santa Rita defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Santa Rita attack 0.69 + Manta FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Manta FC scores more
50%
level
28%
Santa Rita scores more
22%

Manta FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
J. Palacios Ávila
61'
L. Espínola
63'
J. Palacios Ávila
84'
L. Pantoja

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Manta FC 4–0 Santa Rita

Manta FC beat Santa Rita 4-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on June 30, 2018.

Goals: J. Palacios Ávila (28', 63'), L. Espínola (61'), L. Pantoja (84').

The match was played at Estadio Jocay (Manta).