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Manta FC vs Macara — Liga Pro 2026

Manta FC
Manta FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Macara
Macara
J. Angulo 72'
F. Mora 11'
5/16/2021Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 12Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Manta FC34%
×Draw29%
Macara37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manta FC
1.09
Macara
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Manta FC
0.89
Macara
1.10

allows per match

Manta FC
1.17
Macara
1.30

finishing

Manta FC-0.09on par
Macara+0.23scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw
63%
Manta FC or Macara
71%
Draw or Macara
66%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+
14%
Macara wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals
66%
Manta FC 2+ goals
30%
Manta FC 3+ goals
10%
Macara 1+ goals
68%
Macara 2+ goals
32%
Macara 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)
48%
Macara (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.17 · 5 matches

Macara away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 0.89 + Macara defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Macara attack 1.10 + Manta FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Manta FC scores more
34%
level
29%
Macara scores more
37%

Macara at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
F. Mora↳ B. Díaz
23'
Jhon Santacruz
27'
Gustavo Bustamante
46'
M. Romero← D. Patiño
56'
Roberto Garcés
58'
Freddy Mina
58'
E. Rodríguez← F. Mina
58'
S. Portocarrero← B. Díaz
62'
C. Cuero← Á. Ledesma
62'
J. Mesias← G. Bustamante
65'
Alexander Mendoza
70'
M. Orlando← J. Santacruz
72'
J. Angulo↳ J. Flor
76'
Marcos Romero
83'
A. Araújo← F. Mora
84'
I. Trelles← K. Triviño
89'
Erwin Moreira
90+3'
Marcelo Jaramillo
90+1'
Enson Rodriguez

Possession

54%Manta

Shots

8Manta

Statistics

MantaMacara
Overview
54%Possession46%
8Total Shots8
2Corners2
22Fouls33
Shots
8Total Shots8
4On Target4
4Off Target4
Passing
54%Possession46%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
22Fouls33
4Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Manta FC vs Macara

Manta FC and Macara drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on May 16, 2021.

Goals: F. Mora (11'), J. Angulo (72').

Manta FC controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.