Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Macara vs Manta FC — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Macara
Macara
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Manta FC
Manta FC
C. Angulo 29'
L. Bazan 73', 50'
R. Valarezo 15'
10/18/2023Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 35Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Macara51%
×Draw28%
Manta FC21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macara
1.37
Manta FC
0.77

Macara creates 78% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 103 away

creates per match

Macara
1.46
Manta FC
0.89

allows per match

Macara
0.64
Manta FC
1.28

finishing

Macara+0.00on par
Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Manta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Macara or draw
79%
Macara or Manta FC
72%
Draw or Manta FC
49%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+
25%
Manta FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals
75%
Macara 2+ goals
40%
Macara 3+ goals
16%
Manta FC 1+ goals
54%
Manta FC 2+ goals
18%
Manta FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)
71%
Manta FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.64 · 28 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.46 + Manta FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.37

Manta FC attack 0.89 + Macara defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Macara scores more
51%
level
28%
Manta FC scores more
21%

Macara at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
R. Valarezo
29'
C. Angulo
50'
L. Bazan
73'
L. Bazan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Macara vs Manta FC

Manta FC beat Macara 3-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 18, 2023.

Goals: R. Valarezo (15'), C. Angulo (29'), L. Bazan (50', 73').

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.