Manta FC 4–1 LDU Loja: Result & Stats

Manta FC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

LDU Loja

F. Rojas 88'

C. Cuero 79'

C. García 51', 9'

Fábio Renato 28'

8/17/2019

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 23Estadio Jocay (Manta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Manta FC57%

×Draw25%

LDU Loja17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manta FCExpected goals in this matchLDU Loja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.73

Manta FC

1.56

LDU Loja

0.73

Manta FC creates 114% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 40 away

1.43

creates per match

0.60

0.86

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Manta FC

1.43

LDU Loja

0.60

allows per match

Manta FC

0.86

LDU Loja

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par

LDU Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

LDU Loja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw

83%

Manta FC or LDU Loja

75%

Draw or LDU Loja

43%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+

30%

LDU Loja wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals

79%

Manta FC 2+ goals

46%

Manta FC 3+ goals

21%

LDU Loja 1+ goals

52%

LDU Loja 2+ goals

17%

LDU Loja 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)

77%

LDU Loja (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 104 matches

LDU Loja away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.43 + LDU Loja defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.56

LDU Loja attack 0.60 + Manta FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Manta FC scores more

57%

level

25%

LDU Loja scores more

17%

Manta FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

28'

51'

79'

88'

89'

A. Penafiel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff