Manta FC 0–1 Guayaquil City FC: Result & Stats

Manta FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Guayaquil City FC

P. Mancilla 5'

3/18/2026

Liga Pro · Round 5Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Manta FC42%

×Draw28%

Guayaquil City FC30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manta FCExpected goals in this matchGuayaquil City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Manta FC

1.27

Guayaquil City FC

1.02

Manta FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 12 away

1.21

creates per match

0.83

1.21

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Manta FC

1.21

Guayaquil City FC

0.83

allows per match

Manta FC

1.21

Guayaquil City FC

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Guayaquil City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw

70%

Manta FC or Guayaquil City FC

72%

Draw or Guayaquil City FC

58%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+

19%

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals

72%

Manta FC 2+ goals

36%

Manta FC 3+ goals

14%

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

64%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

27%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)

59%

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.21 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.83 + Manta FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Manta FC scores more

42%

level

28%

Guayaquil City FC scores more

30%

Manta FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

P. Mancilla

Guayaquil City FC · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

P. Mancilla↳ P. Gonzalez

41'

Maikel Valencia

46'

J. Angulo← R. Burbano

46'

D. Quintero← J. Alman

46'

J. Chala← G. Mina

59'

D. Cabezas← J. Jimenez

71'

F. Asagidigbi← B. Ramirez

71'

D. Diaz← P. Gonzalez

77'

Edison Alexander Medina Caicedo

87'

Jean Carlos Blanco

90+2'

Edinson Mero

90+5'

J. M. Andrade← A. Naula

90+5'

J. Humanante← K. Sambonino

90+5'

E. P. Ladines Calvache← P. Mancilla

90+3'

M. Palma← E. Mero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantaGuayaquil

Overview

50%Possession50%

6Total Shots8

3Corners4

21Fouls7

Shots

6Total Shots8

2On Target3

3Off Target4

1Blocked1

2Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

367Total Passes401

278Accurate Passes303

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2