Manta FC 4–3 El Nacional: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Manta FC

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

El Nacional

3/8/2025

Liga Pro · Round 4Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Manta FC40%

×Draw27%

El Nacional33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manta FCExpected goals in this matchEl Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.19

Manta FC

1.33

El Nacional

1.19

Manta FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 91 away

1.16

creates per match

1.08

1.30

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Manta FC

1.16

El Nacional

1.08

allows per match

Manta FC

1.30

El Nacional

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par

El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

El Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw

67%

Manta FC or El Nacional

73%

Draw or El Nacional

60%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+

18%

El Nacional wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals

74%

Manta FC 2+ goals

38%

Manta FC 3+ goals

15%

El Nacional 1+ goals

70%

El Nacional 2+ goals

33%

El Nacional 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)

55%

El Nacional (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

El Nacional away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.16 + El Nacional defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

El Nacional attack 1.08 + Manta FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manta FC scores more

40%

level

27%

El Nacional scores more

33%

Manta FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff