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Manta FC vs Duros del Balon — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Manta FC
Manta FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Duros del Balon
Duros del Balon
10/23/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 31Estadio Jocay (Manta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Manta FC50%
×Draw26%
Duros del Balon23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manta FC
1.48
Duros del Balon
0.91

Manta FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 45 away

creates per match

Manta FC
1.43
Duros del Balon
0.96

allows per match

Manta FC
0.86
Duros del Balon
1.53

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par
Duros del Balon+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Duros del Balon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw
77%
Manta FC or Duros del Balon
74%
Draw or Duros del Balon
50%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+
25%
Duros del Balon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals
77%
Manta FC 2+ goals
43%
Manta FC 3+ goals
19%
Duros del Balon 1+ goals
60%
Duros del Balon 2+ goals
23%
Duros del Balon 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)
68%
Duros del Balon (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 104 matches

Duros del Balon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.43 + Duros del Balon defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Duros del Balon attack 0.96 + Manta FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Manta FC scores more
50%
level
26%
Duros del Balon scores more
23%

Manta FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manta FC vs Duros del Balon

Manta FC beat Duros del Balon 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay (Manta).