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Mansfield Town vs Wycombe — League One 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
Preview
15:00
Wycombe
Wycombe
12/12/2026League OneLeague One · Round 19One Call Stadium
Big match
39%
Mansfield Town
model favours
39%22%39%

Wycombe win just 26% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mansfield Town39%
×Draw22%
Wycombe39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.82
Wycombe
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.77
Wycombe
1.77

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.84
Wycombe
1.88

finishing

Mansfield Town-0.04on par
Wycombe-0.57scores less

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Wycombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
61%
Mansfield Town or Wycombe
78%
Draw or Wycombe
61%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
21%
Wycombe wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
84%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
54%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
27%
Wycombe 1+ goals
84%
Wycombe 2+ goals
54%
Wycombe 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
50%
Wycombe (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.88 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.77 + Wycombe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.82

Wycombe attack 1.77 + Mansfield Town defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
39%
level
22%
Wycombe scores more
39%

Mansfield Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Wycombe fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Mansfield Town
Balanced
Wycombe
Balanced
48%Possession48%
71%Pass accuracy67%
11.7Shots12.2
1.37xGBiggest gap1.86
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Mansfield TownWycombe

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Mansfield Town
3
Draws
5
Wycombe
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 40%
0–00–21–20–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LWDWW
Wycombe
LLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mansfield Town face Wycombe (League One)

League One returns with Mansfield Town hosting Wycombe. Match starts December 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mansfield Town host Wycombe at One Call Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.