Mansfield Town 2–2 Wycombe: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Wycombe

O. Palmer 86'

L. Stevenson 54'

J. Scowen 48'

S. Lewis 9'

1/25/2014

League Two · Round 28One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Mansfield Town35%

×Draw31%

Wycombe34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.98

Mansfield Town

1.01

Wycombe

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 12 away

1.60

creates per match

0.75

1.22

allows per match

0.42

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.60

Wycombe

0.75

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.22

Wycombe

0.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

66%

Mansfield Town or Wycombe

69%

Draw or Wycombe

65%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

13%

Wycombe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

64%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

27%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

8%

Wycombe 1+ goals

62%

Wycombe 2+ goals

26%

Wycombe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

51%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Wycombe away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Wycombe defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 1.01

Wycombe attack 0.75 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

35%

level

31%

Wycombe scores more

34%

Mansfield Town at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

48'

50'

54'

69'

A. Jeffrey← R. Styche

79'

O. Palmer← J. Dempster

82'

K. Hause← M. McClure

86'

O. Palmer

Mansfield

Wycombe

1

30

6

2

23

8

⚽

Lewis

28

Mustoe

4

⚽

Scowen

11

Wood

27

▼

Styche

29

▼

McClure

1

Marriott

4

▼

16

28

12

2

19

10

⚽

Stevenson

9

Rhead

13

Howell

15

▼

Dyer

50'▲S. Clucas←▼R. Dyer

79'▲O. Palmer←▼J. Dempster

Mansfield Town substitutes

11Clucas36Palmer6Riley17Beevers20Meikle23McGuire30Daniel

69'▲A. Jeffrey←▼R. Styche

82'▲K. Hause←▼M. McClure

Wycombe substitutes

15Jeffrey19Hause5Stewart13Horlock18Kuffour22Kretzschmar21Kewley-Graham